[Coco] [coco] The German Tank Problem and estimating the number of color computers made

[John Guin]

The recent thread about math problems got me thinking about the German Tank
Problem :
http://www.statisticalconsultants.co.nz/blog/the-german-tank-problem.html

 

We can use this rule of thumb to estimate how many color computers were made
(my personal estimate from years ago was 1.3 million).

 

Anyhow, here's how to do it:

1.       First, everything I have seen is that the serial numbers were
sequential.  There might have been gaps, but that can be compensated (step
4)

2.       We get a list of all the color computer serials numbers everyone
here owns

3.       Compare to the serial numbers produced.  

4.       IIRC, each factory was sequential, but I do not know if the Korean
factory picked up exactly where the other factory left off, but can adjust
with a constant 

5.       Then just apply the formula

6.       Repeat step 5 if we get new data 

 

Seem reasonable?  

 

John